2ft , probably more now, would seriously increase the likelihood of flooding. Oh, wait! It is little tricky to use, but provides real-time access to thousands of U.S. government and personal weather stations (CAVEAT: of varying quality and reliability). We all know where they pull their “technica” from!! Stay safe and dry! Winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt or 154-177 km/hr). Eric Berger The bottom line is that a single storm has no such interpretation. Skin-in-the-game heightens ones awareness greatly. The Society of Exploration Geophysicists (SEG) goes full AGU... Media Amplification of Forister’s Feeble Butterfly Science and Climate Fearmongering, In First, Scientists Trace Fastest Solar Particles to Their Roots on the Sun, The Society of Exploration Geophysicists (SEG) goes full AGU…, Insatiable demand for cannabis has created a giant carbon footprint, Serendipitous Juno Spacecraft Detections Shatter Ideas About Origin of Zodiacal Light, The science behind frozen wind turbines – and how to keep them spinning through the winter. Winds 130-156 mph (113-136 kt or 209-251 km/hr). This moron has been hyping hurricanes and climate change for the last 15 or so years. “Global warming is causing more tropical cyclones! All they’ve got now is the “number of named storms” schtick to beat their drum with. But is the program moving forward? When the map comes up, click on Lousiana. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. – Feb 9, 2021 7:20 pm UTC. Please see I was in an air traffic control tower in DiAn, Vietnam, in 1969 when a hurricane (typhoon?) – Feb 3, 2021 2:05 pm UTC, "It's not like they were huge idiots who wanted to throw their rocket away. I appreciate you sticking up for your friend and vouching for him. I have to agree with Tony. NOAA describes the potential storm surge as “unsurvivable,” just not in Houston. – Feb 1, 2021 3:38 pm UTC. This is far enough away from the storm’s center to spare a metro area with a population of 7 million people from the worst. Eric is an excellent meteorologist who frequently demonstrates common sense in his blog on Gulf coast weather. – Mar 9, 2021 3:34 pm UTC. Devastating damage will occur: Well-built framed homes may incur major damage or removal of roof decking and gable ends. Do they require a sustained pressure differential over a one-minute period, or do they rely on instantaneous measurements? Part II: scenarios of future sea level rise, Asteroid 2001 FO32 Will Safely Pass by Earth March 21, BBC: Switching Consumers to Green Energy Tariffs Without Asking Permission Increases Acceptance, Israeli Study: Aspirin Helps Protect against Covid-19. Starship goes down. "This is a game-changer for South African space science. Caveat emptor. Eric Berger In the end, it's likely that cooler heads will prevail. “Climate Tricks” can also be referred to as “Climate Porn”. I got on the down-wind side and put my flak jacket over my head, expecting to feel the tower go over. – Feb 18, 2021 6:45 pm UTC, "We are reviewing the program for the most efficient path forward.”, Eric Berger But the media are claiming it made landfall as Cat4. https://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/download_api2.cgi?stn=LACL1&hour1=11&min1=07&timetype=GMT&unit=0&graph=0, https://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/download_api2.cgi?stn=CAPL1&hour1=11&min1=07&timetype=LOCAL&unit=0&graph=0. The crazy thing about the Saffir-Simpson scale is that it was developed “backwards”. https://twitter.com/Tony__Heller/status/1298999182535962624, I know Eric very well He is an honest guy and is simply stating what he is observing, There is no evidence in what he is saying reveals any bias no more than the fact that I was extremely worried about that option of it shifting west given the Euro with its strong west ensemble blend. The storm surge threat is extreme, particularly on the northeast side of the storm (farthest from Houson). (I warned you it was tricky). Starship goes up. We were deployed beside a small creek at the time that turned into a roaring river in a very short period of time, and forced us to move to higher ground. Mr. Berger did get one thing right: “Here we go again,” with more climate catastrophe porn from Alarmists Reject Science Technica. The maximum sustained winds are usually in a small portion of the NE eye wall. 2021 marks both the 50th anniversary of the Emirates and the first landing on Mars. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-53928960 The BBC take. So the official landfall site of Laura was Cameron, La. Okay, but this one isn’t moving slow, how do you explain that? Click on the black dot of each station to see a time plot of temperature, wind, rain etc. I hope the storm weakens and moves rapidly inland so that you don’t have to do much more than laugh at the inane and plot further skewerings for them! But … I woke up this morning to news of Cat 2 and a 9-foot surge. It's time to see if SN9 can stick the landing in South Texas. But if the storm were to come in 90 miles to the west, along Galveston Island, it would be an entirely different story. Two skits really stood out: Eric Berger provided his version of Stupid Meteorologist Tricks in this ARS Technica article: GO AWAY, LAURA —There’s a big hurricane headed toward Texas, and it’s a nightmare forecastAs a meteorologist, all I can think is “here we go again.”ERIC BERGER – 8/25/2020. Amazing how quick they are to jump on any disaster, or potential one, to push the narrative. Yet quite often lately storm surge and damage do not correlate with reported wind speed, and I have not read how accurate barometric pressure is for ground speed winds. Haven’t seen any data on the storm surge yet. “The maximum sustained winds are usually in a small portion of the NE eye wall”. I know nothing about this guy, can’t remember reading anything he’s written, but immediately took issue with his overstating things, like nightmare forecast and potential to wreak the most widespread devastation yet and worst flood storm in US history. – Mar 1, 2021 1:00 pm UTC, "If we were to entertain this it would be quite ridiculous. The latest bullshit from Willy McKibben; https://www.newyorker.com/news/annals-of-a-warming-planet/on-climate-change-weve-run-out-of-presidential-terms-to-waste. Flood control projects in Houston are taken very seriously. – Feb 26, 2021 12:00 pm UTC. This is because Laura will likely become a major hurricane before landfall, reaching Category 3 status, and could potentially strike the populous Houston metro area. He previously worked at the Houston Chronicle for 17 years, where the paper was a Pulitzer Prize finalist in 2009 for his coverage of Hurricane Ike. It is absolutely exhilarating. Seems to cause brain rot if taken in large doses! Berger is from Michigan but had gone to the University of Texas to earn his astronomy degree. Ars may earn compensation on sales from links on this site. As a meteorologist, all I can think is “here we go again.”. By Eric Berger on October 19, 2015 at 6:47 AM Good morning and welcome to my weekly weather report on the immediate past, present and future of weather in the Bayou City. Flight Three of the Falcon 1 rocket could make or break the company. Many trees will be snapped or uprooted, blocking numerous roads. Buy "Liftoff: Elon Musk and the Desperate Early Days That Launched SpaceX" by Eric Berger on Amazon.com Now $23.79 (15% off from $27.99) Berger told Space.com that … What’s really going on with Elon Musk, the FAA, and Starship? Stay sane and safe. Eric Berger My understanding is that they are talking about wind speeds at 10 meters. Most of that area is wildlife preserves and parks. Eric Berger Eric Berger In my area, a project on Brays Bayou is widening the channel, raising bridges, and adding detention basins. – Jan 24, 2021 12:40 pm UTC. by Eric Berger The overall story remains the same for Houston weather—mostly spring-like conditions, plenty of partly to mostly sunny days, and not too much hullabaloo. The Saffir-Simpson scale is used to estimate potential property damage due to winds. Al Gore and Bill Nye FAIL at doing a simple CO2 experiment, List of excuses for ‘The Pause’ in global warming, Climate Change Will Increase the Number and Severity of Tornadoes. Doesn’t that assume that barometric pressures, and their differentials which create the winds, are stable over a one-minute period to produce stable winds for that length of time? Overall, expect some great Spring weather in the days ahead. ", Eric Berger – Feb 19, 2021 9:12 pm UTC. 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Unnamed hurricanes of 1909, 1910, 1929, 1933, 1945, and 1949 were all Category 3 storms when they struck South Florida, as were King of 1950, Betsy of 1965, Jeanne of 2004, and Irma of 2017. speed to categorize storms? Lake Charles is a little ways inland and between 1:30 AM to 2 AM C.D.T it was reporting sustained winds of 98 M.P.H with gusts at 128 M.P.H. I ordered the younger controller to abandon the tower and issued a closing operations call and started shutting down. October 23, 2015 at 1:29 pm by Eric Berger After 17 great years at the Houston Chronicle I’m moving to a new position at Ars Technica covering space. IMHO. ", Eric Berger In: Two senior US government officials. – Mar 5, 2021 12:00 pm UTC, "One day, the true measure of success will be that Starship flights are commonplace. Too many people look at the pictures of a hurricane and falsely assume that those maximum winds are occurring under the entire cloud cover. ", Eric Berger find the spot with the very highest wind speed, measured to extreme accuracy, or maybe not even measured, but extrapolated, then use that wind speed to categorize the hurricane. One14 YO girls was killed by a tree falling on her house. Okay, then why was Barack Obama the only US president in recorded hurricane history to never have a major hurricane make landfall during his tenure? David, Yes, a very serious hurricane but we will see if there is cat 4 damage where the NE eye wall came to shore. I don’t know exactly where the NE eye wall went through or if we have those photos. Shouldn’t they be the “Alarmist Suppressors of Science?” After all, they embrace any shred of Science they find that corroborates their religious dogma and the acronym is so apt! ", Eric Berger Use of and/or registration on any portion of this site constitutes acceptance of our User Agreement (updated 1/1/20) and Privacy Policy and Cookie Statement (updated 1/1/20) and Ars Technica Addendum (effective 8/21/2018). What went wrong? “. This is a very destructive storm. The roof stayed on our hootch, probably because it was open for ventilation, but the destruction from wind and flooding was incredible. Which also happens to be the location of the Calcasieu Pass weather station, so download the CAPL1 link above to get the weather history for that event. I’ll watch the weather maps and make my own judgements. Power outages will last weeks to possibly months. The forecast is that it will make landfall just east of the Texas-Louisiana border. The wind steadied and climbed to 111 knots (128 mph) where it stayed steady (in the eye wall, but never the eye itself). Yeah we get it; just shut the hell up with the speculative hyperbole; we’re always hearing stuff like that and it’s getting really, really old. 4 days ago the Alarmist Rejectors of Science were literally peeing themselves in their giddiness over the possibility of two hurricanes simultaneously in the Gulf. Pls see, https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/03/04/agwcyclones/, https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/11/14/hurricane-obsession/. – Feb 18, 2021 1:10 pm UTC, "We did get a little bright glow... no longer see a flame there. © 2021 Condé Nast. His comments on the variability of forecast landfall is spot-on. Laura is topical and will likely be a big story. So predictable, and so wrong. Near-total power loss is expected with outages that could last from several days to weeks. Then it started slowing down and around 80 knots we could see the ground again. Is not the upper Texas coast not part of Texas? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Sea_flood_of_1953. Dont lump them all in with the cottage industry agenda driven crowd.There are good people on that side, and the guy was just trying to point out the inherent worries ( and was mine, cause unlike the monsters like Rita and Ike, I knew people would not pay attention until it was too late) and dont have an agenda. October 23, 2015 at 1:29 pm by Eric Berger After 17 great years at the Houston Chronicle I’m moving to a new position at Ars Technica covering space. Rocket Lab will directly challenge SpaceX with its proposed Neutron launcher, Russia turns away from NASA, says it will work with China on a Moon base, SpaceX reveals the grand extent of its starport plans in South Texas, Rocket Report: SpaceX explains landing failure, more on New Glenn delays. Biggest reported storm surge so far is 9.4 feet. then the power went out and later in the night the eye passed over where I lived so that forecast lost out to the storm taking its own direction. By Eric Berger on September 22, 2015 at 9:30 AM. ERIC BERGER is the senior space editor at Ars Technica, covering everything from astronomy to private space to NASA. Frances of 2004 was a Category Two when it hit just north of Palm Beach County, along with at least 10 other hurricanes which have struck South Florida since 1894. Never let a good weather event pass without claiming it is the new normal. One station put a reporter in a car with a camera and presumably told him to find death and destruction. You drastically messed up on this opinion, Middleton. A certified meteorologist, Eric lives in Houston. ", Eric Berger I should know better than to try and write something when I wake in the middle of the night! Joel, The hurricane came directly to us, and myself and a young guy watched the wind speed gust upward to 90 knots (103 mph), roofs coming off, aircraft cartwheeling away, rain like standing in the shower, etc. One gust of 132 on the ground, NE eye wall in an article reposted at Zero hedge. Get out of the projected cone of any intensifying hurricane. Normal high temperatures for mid-November generally run in the low 70s for Houston, with overnight lows in low 50s. Houston, Texas, United States About Blog Eric Berger and Matt Lanza are Houston-based meteorologists. A single storm, no matter its extent, wind speed, total cyclone energy, rainfall, or storm surge, has no interpretation in terms of AGW climate change because of its time and geography constraints. Which brings us back to Houston. Many shallowly rooted trees will be snapped or uprooted and block numerous roads. All performed by the same technology that allows NOAA to declare transitory storms as official tropical storms or hurricanes. But it appears Laura will move with enough speed across the SE US towards a DC coast out exit that its substantial moisture will be wildly spread across its track. For permission, contact us. A certified meteorologist, Eric founded Space City Weather and lives in Houston. Is it just me but the forecast is for 130mph sustained winds but the highest observed appears to be 85mph gusts. And this is entirely within the realm of possibility, given the average forecast track error of about 75 miles at this time and the fact that some hurricane models still indicate this scenario. There have attempts to come up with better metrics, such as IKE, to convey info but NHC has Ben slow to change. The storm is predicted to make landfall about 90 miles to the east of Houston. Rocket Report: China debuts new booster, SpaceX eyeing Indonesia launch site? ERIC BERGER is the senior space editor at Ars Technica, covering everything from astronomy to private space to NASA. ", Eric Berger The city’s water system is now sourced exclusively from surface water. – Fred Pearce The Climate Files: He is, however, a hard core ‘science is settled’ kind of guy and is quick to quash any alternate interpretations of weather and climate. The engineers that constructed it placed a placard inside that said “Abandon tower at indicated wind speeds above 90 knots). Company says its next window for a test flight opens on February 12. Musk says he is confident Starship will be ready for a lunar flight in three years. For much of the city—with the exception of some outlying areas far from the coast—we are going to run about 10 degrees above this through Sunday before our next robust front arrives. All rights reserved. – Feb 22, 2021 2:19 pm UTC, "It is exhilarating. Dennis, However, the NHC and others continue to use flight level measurements (and inaccurate “extrapolation”) for hurricane categorization that defy the requirements set forth in the Saffir-Simpson scale. When that hoped-for Happy Ending narrative flopped, they had to move on to another climate porn narrative for their titillations and perverse pleasures. ", Eric Berger We’re now in the period where winter is pretty much in the rear view mirror, and summer is not yet right in front of us. You do not understand the wind distribution of a hurricane. At this point the wind reports stopped but was still reporting temp of 77 F and 957 millibars of pressure. Several geologist friends of mine said 30 years ago that Houston had subsided by 2 ft owing to water extraction. The more page views, the model more web ads to sell. The howling and shrieking of the wind was like a horror movie. The headline is true. One neighbor posted about the ‘unsurvivable’ storm surge that would come with Laura. They were on the last airplane flight into Brownsville. The failing, anti-science NYT’s is now bloviating about “The growing power of hurricanes”. Eric has an astronomy degree from the University of Texas and a master's in journalism from the University of Missouri. Joel, Then zoom into the area around Lake Charles, and you will see many weather stations. “Walk toward the fire. Nature has other plans for Oregonians. Remember how just 3 years ago, stalled hurricanes dumping torrential rains in the same spot were supposed to be the “new normal”? Most of the online resources are showing wind speeds which are just forecasts, not instrument measured, which tend to overestimate speeds. by Eric Berger Houston’s weather now turns rather boring—and since we’re in March that means good things like dry air and moderate temperatures—so there’s not a whole lot to say about the forecast. CNMN Collection I had seen some weeks ago a piece conflating the pandemic and an active hurricane season so panic early, panic often. No problem even with a hurricane now and then. Many of the engine components fell over populated areas. The extrapolation method is what it is.
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